The impact of the crisis on development in Russia the year 2017. Anti-crisis measures
The Ministry's experts have studied the impact of the crisis on Russia in the year 2017 and came to the conclusion that in the coming year the economic component in the country has stabilized, and the crisis has finished its existence. Finance Ministry representatives are convinced that talking about positive dynamics is still early, and the period of difficulties yet to be passed. The same view of the incline leading experts in the field of finance.
The starting point of growth
In the year 2017 black band crisis fully minuetsja, sure Minjekonomrazvitii. GDP growth will continue in a positive way and reaches 1%. The growth of investment in fixed assets will increase by 0.8%, while industrial output is at 1.1%. These indicators suggest that the economic development of the country turns into a stable phase. The inflation rate will drop to 4.9%, says about her fall.
In their view, oil prices per barrel will not fall below 40 dollars. However, it is possible price drop on the "black gold" to 25 dollars per barrel, in such a case, the development of the economy waiting for negative trends. If such an outcome the economy will return to growth is possible not earlier than 2018 year.
Financial experts from the EBRD also predicted growth next year of the domestic economy. This view is preceded by a 1% increase in the level of GDP. But they are not as positive as the representatives of the Ministry of economic development. In their view, one of the main problems the lack of reform of the economy is braking, which would greatly improve the recovery period. Without change and radical measures this period lasts one year.
In the absence of impairment resulting from external Wednesday, positive dynamics of growth can be observed at the end of the year 2016, so consider representatives of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The economic downturn has been overcome, thanks to the anti-crisis programs of the Government entered and now starting point begins a slow but steady growth.
Search for anti-crisis measures
The Ministry of finance assured that next year, completely exhausted strategic reserves if the Government and the Central Bank would not resort to the help of structural reforms. Consequently, social obligations are fulfilled in full. Falling revenue has a negative impact on the overall economic environment. To normalize it is not enough simply to optimize expenditures, it is necessary to search for new sources of financing. The presence of structural problems, said the fall of the domestic economy for the past 1.5 years. In this regard, economic indicators showed negative dynamics.
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The introduction of new tax deductions is not conducive to the stabilization of the economic situation. Moreover, an additional burden on business is not every entrepreneur can withstand. Government for unexplained reasons, constantly pulls when privatization of state blocks of shares. All of the above problems, according to experts, were hindering the development of the economy, therefore, the crisis will be continued and in the year 2017.
Fulfillment of budgetary commitments will be problematic in the following year, in addition, would interfere with the expected collapse of prices in the oil market. According to strong pressure on pricing have excessive oil production standards. According to preliminary estimates financial experts leading determination of demand should be that the quotes on "black gold" during the year does not rise above 55 dollars per barrel.
Exporters under intense competition forced to substantially understate the cost of raw materials. Such conditions do not give oil-producing countries to reduce oil production. Chrome also difficulties associated with the economic situation in China and the effects of the Brexit inhibit the growth of the world economy.
At the moment the primary challenge facing the Central Bank is curbing price increases, which becomes increasingly elusive in the face of weakening of the Russian currency. Real incomes in the midst of developing inflation will continuously decrease. Heavy pressure will affect domestic demand that will interfere with the economy.
Despite the negative forecasts of development in times of crisis, the Ministry experts are confident that growth will resume at the beginning of the year 2017 and will steadily go up. While oil prices remain low, confirming the worst fears of financial analysts. Due to imbalance in the expenditure side of the budget crisis may continue to evolve further, leading the Government to new difficulties.